A community located near a river is exposed to flooding. The probability of a flood occurring in any given year is 0.02 (2 %). If a flood occurs, the estimated consequences are:

- Economic loss: ₦150 million
- Health impact: 2 000 person‑days of illness, valued at ₦5 000 per person‑day
- Environmental damage: ₦30 million

For a composite risk assessment the following weighting factors are applied: economic 0.5, health 0.3, environmental 0.2.

(a) Calculate the expected annual loss for each component.

(b) Compute the overall weighted risk value.

(c) If the management threshold for action is a risk value of ₦5 million, should mitigation measures be implemented?

Question

A community located near a river is exposed to flooding. The probability of a flood occurring in any given year is 0.02 (2 %). If a flood occurs, the estimated consequences are:

- Economic loss: ₦150 million
- Health impact: 2 000 person‑days of illness, valued at ₦5 000 per person‑day
- Environmental damage: ₦30 million

For a composite risk assessment the following weighting factors are applied: economic 0.5, health 0.3, environmental 0.2.

(a) Calculate the expected annual loss for each component.

(b) Compute the overall weighted risk value.

(c) If the management threshold for action is a risk value of ₦5 million, should mitigation measures be implemented?

Accepted Answer

₦1.68 million; No mitigation required

Neco Model Questions Vol1 2019 Geography Question 20

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