The Prime Minister wishes to appoint Dr\,A, a distinguished economist who is not a member of either House of Parliament, as Secretary of State for the Treasury. Constitutionally, all Secretaries of State must be members of either the House of Commons or the House of Lords. Two options are available:

(i) Grant Dr\,A a life peerage. The peerage bill requires a two‑thirds majority in the House of Lords, where the opposition controls 40 % of the Lords and will vote against the bill.

(ii) Have Dr\,A contest a by‑election for a vacant Commons seat. Each by‑election gives Dr\,A a 60 % chance of winning, and the Prime Minister is prepared to stand for up to three by‑elections.

Which option is feasible, and what is the probability that Dr\,A will secure a Commons seat within the allowed attempts?

Question

The Prime Minister wishes to appoint Dr\,A, a distinguished economist who is not a member of either House of Parliament, as Secretary of State for the Treasury. Constitutionally, all Secretaries of State must be members of either the House of Commons or the House of Lords. Two options are available:

(i) Grant Dr\,A a life peerage. The peerage bill requires a two‑thirds majority in the House of Lords, where the opposition controls 40 % of the Lords and will vote against the bill.

(ii) Have Dr\,A contest a by‑election for a vacant Commons seat. Each by‑election gives Dr\,A a 60 % chance of winning, and the Prime Minister is prepared to stand for up to three by‑elections.

Which option is feasible, and what is the probability that Dr\,A will secure a Commons seat within the allowed attempts?

Accepted Answer

Option i is not feasible; option ii is feasible with a 93.6% chance of Dr A winning a seat within three by‑elections.

Gce Model Questions Vol1 2017 Government Question 48

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