Gce Model Questions Vol1 2024 Government Question 29

In Country Y a constitutional amendment must pass three stages: (i) a two‑thirds majority in the House of Commons, (ii) a simple majority in the Senate, and (iii) a national referendum in which at least 50 % of votes cast are in favour and at least 40 % of the total electorate vote yes. Suppose the probability that the amendment achieves the required two‑thirds majority in the Commons is 0.60, the probability of a simple majority in the Senate is 0.80, the probability that the referendum obtains a favourable majority is 0.70, and the probability that the referendum turnout reaches the 40 % threshold is 0.50. Assuming independence of all stages, what is the overall probability that the amendment is successfully adopted?